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预测台账 · Predictions Ledger

跨全部访谈提取的可证伪的前瞻性断言。只收有明确内容、可在未来某时点判对错的预测；纯方向性感想、无法判定的愿景不入账。

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如何读

| 状态 | 含义 | |---|---| | ⏳ | 待验证（期限未到） | | ⌛ | 已到期待判定（期限已过，尚未裁决） | | ✅ | 命中（未来更新时标注） | | ❌ | 落空（未来更新时标注） | | ◐ | 部分命中（未来更新时标注） |

记分牌（截至 2026-07-16）

11 到期：7 ✅ · 2 ❌ · 2 ◐

| 预测 | 预言者 | 期限 | 裁决 | |---|---|---|---| | O1 年底前集成系统提示/结构化输出/函数调用 | Sam Altman & Kevin Weil | 2024 底 | ✅ | | GPT-5 于 2025 年夏天发布 | Sam Altman | 2025 夏 | ✅ | | 2025 年底 SWE-bench 达 90% | Dario Amodei（Krieger 引述） | 2025 底 | ❌ | | 2025 是"推理之年" | Bob McGrew | 2025 底 | ✅ | | 2025 年 Meta 拥有中级工程师级写码 AI | Mark Zuckerberg（转述） | 2025 底 | ◐ | | Polymarket 经收购 QCEX 重返美国 | Shayne Coplan | 2025 底 | ✅ | | 统一界面代理（写 PR + 订韩国旅行） | Isa Fulford | ≈2026-04 | ◐ | | 医疗/法律级能力作为统一大模型出现 | Sholto Douglas | ≈2026-06 | ✅ | | AI 写 PR 命中率超过人类 | Brendan Foody | 2026-06 | ❌ | | 2026 中模型能完成大量远程工作类任务 | Noam Brown | 2026 中 | ✅ | | Arsenal-1 首批 80 万平方英尺 Q1 投产 | Trae Stephens | 2026 Q1 | ✅ |

发布/事件类的硬预测（GPT-5 发布、Polymarket 重返美国、Arsenal-1 投产、o1 API 能力）中 6 条清晰命中——有明确主体与动作、可被单一事件证实的预测最稳。两条落空（SWE-bench 90%、AI 写 PR 命中率超人类）均属能力阈值型：能力确在逼近（年底 SWE-bench 约 81%、AI 代码接受率升至 60%），但都差一口气，且真实工作流指标远低于基准分数。两条部分命中（Meta 中级工程师、统一界面代理）共享同一裂缝——底层能力各自到位，但"自主胜任 / 统一为同一个代理"这类整合性主张迟到或未达。

已到期（2025 及更早）

"Probably sometime this summer. I don't know exactly when."
「可能在今年夏天某个时候。我不确切知道是什么时候。」
Sam Altman · Episode 1 - Sam Altman on AGI, GPT-5, and what's next
「……但即使是去年，他还在说，我们在 sweet bench 上的表现是 50%，这是一个衡量模型编码能力的标准。他说，我认为到 2025 年底，我们会达到 90% 或者类似的水平。果然，现在使用新的模型，我们达到了大约 72%。他做出预测时，我们才达到 50%。这就像，持续扩展，几乎和预测的一样。」（"sweet bench" 为转写原文，即 SWE-bench）
— Mike Krieger · Anthropic's CPO on what comes next

2026

「比如，对我来说，我做了很多编码工作，我希望会有一个智能体非常，非常擅长编码，但我会信任它，我会给它一个任务，它希望能创建一个 PR 或其他什么。也许我可以让同一个代理帮我预订去韩国的旅行之类的。我希望我们能获得更统一的体验，但我也认为这些模型改进的速度会让大多数人感到惊讶。」
— Isa Fulford · Inside Deep Research with Isa Fulford（原访谈为英文，文件仅存 podwise 中文逐字转录，以上引自其 ## Transcript 原文）
「我认为它不会仅限于软件工程。我认为它将能够完成许多远程工作类型的任务。」
— Noam Brown · Scaling Test Time Compute to Multi-Agent Civilizations
"The first about 800,000 square feet will come online in the first quarter of 2026."
「首批约 80 万平方英尺将于 2026 年第一季度投产。」
Trae Stephens · Uncapped #35 | Trae Stephens from Founders Fund
"I predict that by the end of the year, Sam Altman will no longer be CEO of OpenAI."
「我预测到今年年底，Sam Altman 将不再担任 OpenAI 的 CEO。」
Rob Toews · AI Vibe Check
"…there is a greater than 50% chance that by the end of 2026, there will be at least one time where clearly the best model in the world is a Chinese open source model and where there is a general clear consensus that it is better than all the closed source alternatives."
「到 2026 年底，有超过 50% 的概率会出现至少一次，世界上最好的模型是中国开源模型，并且普遍明确地认为它优于所有闭源替代品。」
Ari Morcos · AI Vibe Check
"Metronome joins our revenue suite, comprising Stripe billing, invoicing, tax, and more, which is on track to hit an annual run rate of a billion dollars this year."
「Metronome 加入了我们的收入套件，包括 Stripe 账单、发票、税务等，预计今年的年运行率将达到 10 亿美元。」
Stripe 年度信 · Stripe's 2025 annual letter
"We will see before the end of the year, an agent that is capable of running for longer than 24 hours with like self-consistency the entire time."
「我们将在年底前看到一个能够运行超过 24 小时的代理，并且始终保持自我一致性。」
Kyle Kranen · NVIDIA's AI Engineers
"And then the other thing is I think most companies in Silicon Valley won't write code by hand."
「另一件事是，我认为硅谷的大多数公司都不会手工编写代码。」
Bret Taylor · Bret Taylor of Sierra on AI agents
"I think this year is the year that we see intelligence at an individual level kind of brought into intelligence at an organizational level."
「我认为今年是我们看到个人层面的智能被引入到组织层面的智能的一年。」
Niko · Harvey Co-Founder Gabe Pereyra on the Token Pricing Reckoning Coming for AI
"We should be at 100 per day regardless of system. … By like the June-July time frame, rough estimate, give or take."
「我们应该能做到每天 100，无论系统如何。……到大约 6 月-7 月这个时间框架，粗略估计，加减一下。」
Joseph Krause · 🔬 The Self-Driving Lab — Joseph Krause, Radical AI

2027

「RL 有效，这些模型将在 2027 年之前达到可以远程办公的水平。到那时你将拥有非常强大的模型。」
「我认为，到 2027 年、28 年，或者几乎可以肯定到十年末，我们几乎肯定会拥有能够自动化任何白领工作的有效模型。」
— Sholto Douglas · Ep 66: Sholto Douglas on Claude 4
"In my head, I probably bet that within the next one or two years, the models are going to automate 80% of the average L6 software engineer's job. It's going to take another few years to move to 90% and another few years to 99% and so on and so on."
「在我看来，我可能认为在未来一两年内，这些模型将自动化普通 L6 软件工程师 80% 的工作。再过几年才能达到 90%，再过几年才能达到 99%，以此类推。」
Edwin Chen · The 100-person AI lab that became Anthropic and Google's secret weapon
"Our whole hypothesis is every company needs a website in 1997. Every company needs an agent in 2027."
「我们的整个假设是，每家公司在 1997 年都需要一个网站。每家公司在 2027 年都需要一个代理。」
Bret Taylor · Uncapped #42 | Bret Taylor from Sierra
"So I think we'll move more towards that kind of like asynchronous style of working. … It'll be fun actually for you and me to revisit a year from now."
「所以我认为我们会朝着那种异步工作风格前进。……对于你和我来说，一年后再来回顾这事将会很有趣。」
Fiona Fung · Building the most AI-pilled engineering team in the world
"And so all these customers are going to start getting these consumption bills of like $10 million. … And I think you're going to start seeing things like this for token billing, where there's going to become this whole ecosystem of like, how do you optimize around this?"
「所以所有这些客户将开始收到消费账单，账单金额可能达到 1000 万美元。……我想你会开始看到像这样的令牌计费情况，将会出现如何围绕这个进行优化的整个生态系统。」
Gabe Pereyra · Harvey Co-Founder Gabe Pereyra on the Token Pricing Reckoning Coming for AI
"I do think the benchmark gets saturated within a year at least."
「我确实认为基准会在至少一年内达到饱和。」
Niko · Harvey Co-Founder Gabe Pereyra on the Token Pricing Reckoning Coming for AI
"One is that the amount of tokens we will all collectively individually generate is going to be in the tens of millions of tokens per day soon."
「首先，我们所有人共同产生的令牌数量很快就会达到数千万个每天。」
Dan Biderman · Memory and Continual Learning: Engram's Dan Biderman and Jessy Lin
"I think like the first proof of concept of the thing that people keep talking about with continual learning, which is you have an intern that you can teach things over time, and it actually gets better. … no matter how sophisticated the context engineering approaches are these days, they're not getting there."
「我认为人们一直在谈论的持续学习的第一证明概念，就像是你有一个可以随着时间教授的实习生，而它实际上会变得更好。……无论现在的上下文工程方法多么复杂，它们都没有达到那个水平。」
Jessy Lin · Memory and Continual Learning: Engram's Dan Biderman and Jessy Lin
"And I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, six months or a year from now, the model is able to do zero shot an entire poker solver"
「如果六个月或一年后，模型能够零样本完成整个扑克解算器，我不会感到惊讶」
Noam Brown · Why Traditional Benchmarks Fail Modern AI Models
"But we're going to pretty soon be at that point where I probably could just tell it like, yeah, go work on this for a month and then come back to me with a full, complete poker solver that's state of the art."
「但我们很快就会达到那个点，我可能可以告诉它，去做这个一个月，然后给我带回来一个完整的，先进的扑克求解器。」
Noam Brown · Why Traditional Benchmarks Fail Modern AI Models
"Maybe it only works 5 or 10% of the time, and then six to 12 months later, it's like, models are great at this thing … We are clearly in that middle phase with frontier science and AI"
「也许它只有在 5% 或 10% 的时间内有效，六到十二个月后，情况就变成了，模型在这件事上表现很好……我们显然处于前沿科学和人工智能的中间阶段」
Kevin Weil · AI Is Crossing the Frontier of Human Knowledge
"I think we will, in 12 months, not see a single system prompt that is stuffed with 20 or 30 or 40 tools anymore."
「我认为 12 个月内，我们将不会再看到任何一个塞满 20、30、40 个工具的 system prompt。」
Eiso Kant · Inside the Model Factory — Eiso Kant, Poolside AI
"I think in 12 to 24 months, like 90% of tokens will be asynchronous tokens."
「我认为在 12 到 24 个月内，90% 的 token 将是异步 token。」
Matan Grinberg · Factory's Matan Grinberg: The Coming 'Dark Factory'
"And what we think is like really cutting edge today will look so archaic in, you know, a year, let alone a month, right?"
「而我们今天认为的前沿事物在一年后甚至一个月后看起来都会显得非常陈旧，对吧？」
Ian Silber · OpenAI's Head of Design: This is the best time in history to be a designer
"And I believe that over the next 12 months, there's going to be dozens of examples just like that, where companies own their own intelligence. And that is the key source of the modes that they're building."
「我相信在接下来的 12 个月中，会有十几个这样的例子，企业拥有自己的智能。这就是他们构建模式的关键来源。」（"dozens" podwise 译作"十几个"，原文为数十家；"modes" 为转写原文，即 moats）
Brendan Foody · RL Environments Explained: How AI Agents Learn Real-World Work
"Like right now agents mostly aren't trained to do things that are over 10 hours. And we need to start building tasks for things that might take a human a hundred hours or even a thousand hours to do. And so that's going to be a giant shift."
「现在，代理主要未经过训练以进行超过 10 小时的任务。我们需要开始创建那些可能需要人类 100 小时甚至 1000 小时才能完成的任务。这将是一次巨大的转变。」
Brendan Foody · RL Environments Explained: How AI Agents Learn Real-World Work
"And then the other large shift that we're seeing is introducing virtual coworkers … But then if you map that on to what percentage of evals measure how well the models can interact with other people, it's like 1%."
「另一个我们看到的大转变是引入虚拟同事……但如果您将其映射到评估中，评估模型与其他人互动的能力占的百分比，大约是 1%。」
Brendan Foody · RL Environments Explained: How AI Agents Learn Real-World Work
"But I think it turns out that there are more sophisticated things you can do that make the training gradually harder that make the model better over time."
「不过我认为实际上你可以做更复杂的事情，让训练逐渐变得更困难，同时使模型随着时间的推移变得更好。」
Jack Morris · Scaling Compute on Context — Jack Morris, Engram
"And there's a really exciting world that is about to come where software in general just gets smarter every single time it's used. And that is the most exciting unlock that's going to happen in 2026, 2027, and as we scale up."
「有一个非常激动人心的世界即将到来，软件每次使用时都会变得更智能。而这将是 2026 年、2027 年将要发生的最令人兴奋的解锁，随着我们的扩展。」
Ronak Malde · Scaling up Continual Learning — Ronak Malde, Trajectory · 另见 ⚡️Every product of the future will be a living system（同人同断言："捕捉真实世界使用将是 AI 的下一个重大解锁"）
"But the bigger thing to me is that I think China is bringing on 10 times as much energy next year as we are in the US."
「但对我来说，更重要的是，我认为中国明年将引入的能源是美国的十倍。」
Eric Vishria · Eric Vishria - A Decade of Lessons Investing in Software & Hardware

2028–2030

「我读过 AI 2027，它基本上就是你刚才描述的故事。它预测在 2028 年……这是我们拥有这种递归的自我改进循环的第 50 个百分位预测。带领我们走向在大多数领域看起来像超人 AI 的东西。」
— Ben Mann · Will we have Superintelligence by 2028?
"I know there's been some executives at big labs that say we'll have superintelligence in three years, but I think the truth is that it's a longer road."
「我知道一些大型实验室的高管说我们将在三年内拥有超智能，但我认为事实是这是一条更长的道路。」
Brendan Foody · Why experts writing AI evals is creating the fastest-growing companies
"Maybe it will be slightly earlier, maybe it will be slightly later, maybe 2026, maybe 2027, maybe 2028, maybe 2029. I don't think it will take much more than that."
「也许会稍早，也许会稍晚——可能是 2026、2027、2028 或 2029 年。我认为不会比这更久。」
Jerry Tworek · He Left OpenAI To Think Bigger
"First, related to AI, robotics will take a little longer, but I think we'll have the ChatGPT moment in the next two to three years. A robot that doesn't need to be programmed; it learns."
「首先，与 AI 相关，机器人会稍慢一点，但我认为未来两三年内我们会迎来它的 ChatGPT 时刻。一个不需要编程的机器人；它自己学习。」
Vinod Khosla · Vinod Khosla | Predicting the Future · 另见 Jerry Tworek 访谈 · 另见 Sam Altman 访谈
"Almost certainly within the next five years, AI will be able to do 80% of any economically valuable job humans can do, with a few exceptions like heart or brain surgery."
「几乎可以肯定，未来五年内，AI 将能完成人类 80% 具有经济价值的工作，只有心脏或脑外科手术等少数例外。」
Vinod Khosla · Vinod Khosla | Predicting the Future
「我坚信，五年后，对大多数人来说，最了解你的人将是 AI。」
— Victor Lazarte · 20VC: Benchmark's Victor Lazarte
「我最兴奋的是 AI 伴侣。几年后，我们回头会说 Character AI 是 Friendster。」
— Victor Lazarte · 20VC: Benchmark's Victor Lazarte
"Fully convert all general purpose computing to accelerated computing and AI. Until we do that, I think the chances are extremely low."
「将所有通用计算完全转换为加速计算和 AI。在我们做到这一点之前，我认为机会非常渺茫。」
Jensen Huang · NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream
"Less, for sure. I think it may very well be even less than that."
「肯定更少。我认为很可能比那还要少得多。」
Sebastian Siemiatkowski · 20VC: SaaS is Dead
"I think that we could experience a dead internet outcome in the next three years. I do think it's possible. Maybe not likely."
「我认为我们可能会在未来三年内经历"死互联网"的结果。我觉得这有可能。也许可能性不大。」
James Cadwallader · From SEO to Agent-Led Growth
"I mean, when we look at our kind of three-year roadmap, the end goal that we want to reach is one where The models are just doing end-to-end research and I think a part of that problem is just being able to have the model come up with good taste."
「我的意思是，当我们看我们的三年路线图时，我们想要达到的最终目标是模型能够进行端到端的研究，我认为其中一部分问题就是能够让模型产生良好的品味。」
Mark Chen · Cooking with OpenAI's Research Chief: AGI, o1, Evals, and Scaling Laws
"I would say something on the alloy side, like aerospace, We feel good opportunity three to five year timeline. … I think it'll be an application, not like manned flight."
「我会在合金方面说，像航空航天那样，我们觉得在三到五年的时间线中机会很好。……我认为这将是一个应用，而不是像载人飞行那样。」
Joseph Krause · 🔬 The Self-Driving Lab — Joseph Krause, Radical AI
"I think we're going to have that for science over the next two to three years."
「我认为在接下来的两到三年内，我们将在科学领域达到这个目标。」
Joseph Krause · 🔬 The Self-Driving Lab — Joseph Krause, Radical AI
"Accelerate science and bring about the science of 2050, but in 2030 instead. And that's our goal."
「加速科学的发展，并在 2030 年实现 2050 年的科学。这就是我们的目标。」
Kevin Weil · AI Is Crossing the Frontier of Human Knowledge
"There are a lot of interesting startups building things along these lines and the world is just moving so fast, it can't be long."
「有很多有趣的初创公司正在沿着这些方向开发事物，而世界正在快速前进，不能再等很久。」
Kevin Weil · AI Is Crossing the Frontier of Human Knowledge
"They can achieve something they won't be able to achieve before. So the gap is going to just get bigger."
「他们能实现以前无法实现的东西。所以这个差距只会越来越大。」
Zach Xia · Building AI for Creators | Luma & Phota Labs
"If you were to analyze what everyone is doing today and say in 2030, whatever one, is there going to be leading edge fabs in the United States at scale? It's like, no, there's not even anything that anybody's working on that would lead towards that today."
「如果你分析今天每个人正在做的事情，并在 2030 年说，是否会在美国规模化建设尖端的半导体厂？结果是，不，现在没有任何人正在朝这个方向努力。」
Delian Asparouhov · Uncapped #53 | Trae and Delian from Founders Fund
"we've had a pretty wild deployment rate over the last three, four years in terms of especially, you know, some of our growth checks. Maybe not as possible over the next three or four years if there, you know, aren't logos like that."
「我们在过去三、四年中的部署率其实相当疯狂，尤其是，嗯，我们的一些增长检查。接下来的三四年可能不会那么容易，如果，嗯，像那样的标志不存在的话。」
Delian Asparouhov · Uncapped #53 | Trae and Delian from Founders Fund
"…we do think that there should be sort of this one universal input that you can ask that knows when it needs to answer like really quickly or it should be chatty or whether it should go and like go off and do work for you. … But yeah, I think it's going to be really proactive."
「……我们确实认为应该有这样一种通用输入，可以在需要快速响应时回答，或者应该是健谈的，或者它应该去为你做一些工作。……但我认为这将非常积极主动。」
Ian Silber · OpenAI's Head of Design: This is the best time in history to be a designer
"If you put those together really well, I think you'll have a new generation of massively superior continual deep learning. That's what we hope to do in the next couple of years."
「如果把这些结合得很好，我认为你会有一个新一代的超级持续深度学习。这是我们希望在接下来的几年中做到的。」
Rich Sutton · Rich Sutton and Khurram Javed: Why AI Models Stop Learning, and How to Start It Again
"I do think in the next some number of years, we will start creating simulations that will actually cost as much as training a foundation model, but perhaps it's going to be so valuable to the society that it would be a no brainer."
「我认为在接下来的几年中，我们将开始创建实际上成本与训练基础模型一样高的仿真，但也许它对社会的价值会大到无须思考。」
Joon Sung Park · Simulation: the new Scaling Law — Joon Sung Park, Simile AI
"…it's very clear now that we are getting that explosion for every single other domain, right? Like legal, healthcare, finance, they're all going to be supercharged in the way that coding was for the last few years."
「……现在非常明显的是，我们在每一个其他领域都在经历爆发，对吗？像法律、医疗、金融等领域，它们将以一种超级加速的方式发展，就像过去几年的编码一样。」
Ronak Malde · ⚡️Every product of the future will be a living system
"…but I think that for the first time In a long time, there's actually room for a new CPU approach."
「……但我认为这是很长一段时间以来第一次，实际上有空间来进行新的 CPU 方法。」
Eric Vishria · Eric Vishria - A Decade of Lessons Investing in Software & Hardware
"We'll get to a place a couple of years from now where hopefully most every process is automated."
「我们将在几年后达到一个地方，希望那时大多数流程都已实现自动化。」
Adam Foroughi · How AppLovin Built a $100B Ad Machine

更远期

「我们将看到这些想法非常重要的扩展、发展和改进，但我认为如果我们从 2035 年回顾，我们不会看到任何新的和根本性的东西。」
— Bob McGrew · The Breakthroughs Needed for AGI Have Already Been Made
"If I look to 2040 and beyond, we're going to be in an era of abundance that's so large it's very hard for people to imagine. The simplest way to say it is the need to work will go away."
「如果看向 2040 年及以后，我们将处在一个大到人们难以想象的富足时代。最简单的说法是：为生计工作的需要将会消失。」
Vinod Khosla · Vinod Khosla | Predicting the Future
"And that entire road to automating the entire economy and building Agents for Everything is paved with humans creating evals for all of those workflows."
「而自动化整个经济并为一切构建代理的整个道路，都铺满了人类为所有这些工作流程创建评估。」
Brendan Foody · 20VC: Mercor: From $1M to $500M in 17 Months
"I think we'll be able to automate a majority of knowledge work tasks in the next 10 years for sure. But that long road is paved with all of the evals that help to make those capabilities possible."
「我认为我们肯定能够在未来 10 年内自动化大多数知识工作任务。但是，这条漫长的道路是用所有帮助使这些能力成为可能的评估铺平的。」
Brendan Foody · Why experts writing AI evals… · 另见 Jonathan Siddharth 访谈
"One of the only predictions I think I would make accurately is 10 years from now, we'll look back and say, man, you remember that era? That was crazy."
「我唯一能准确预测的是，十年后，我们会回顾过去说，那真是个疯狂的时代。」
Mike Cannon-Brookes · 20VC: Atlassian CEO on Why Everything is Overvalued
"I am on the record as saying that the modal timeline is 2045."
「我公开说过，最可能的时间线是 2045 年。」
Yafah Edelman · The 2045 Superintelligence Timeline
"Well, one is just editing code by hand. I think probably another one, this is maybe spicier, but another one might even be actually managing the deployment and monitoring of systems by hand."
「一个就是手工编辑代码。另一个可能更劲爆——甚至是手工管理系统的部署和监控。」
Alex Embiricos · 20VC: Codex vs Claude Code vs Cursor
"I really do believe that in our lifetimes you'll be able to go buy something that's like a Ford F-150 for $1,000 or the equivalent."
「我真的相信在我们的有生之年，你将能够花 1000 美元左右的价格购买类似福特 F-150 的东西或等价物。」
Palmer Luckey · Palmer Luckey on Hardware, Building, and the Next Frontiers
"Eventually, I expect the average enterprise will spend more on compute than on human headcount."
「最终，我预计普通企业在计算上花费的费用将超过人力成本。」
Brendan Foody · 20VC: Mercor CEO on Why Application Layer Companies Have No Defensibility
"We actually think in five years most models will be open source."
「我们实际上认为在五年内，大多数模型将会是开源的。」
Joseph Krause · 🔬 The Self-Driving Lab — Joseph Krause, Radical AI
"When do we get there? It's hard to say, but I honestly, I mean, I think we'll have solved most of that over the next five years or so."
「我们什么时候才能达到那个阶段？很难说，但老实说，我认为我们在未来五年左右会解决大部分问题。」
Scott Wu · Scott Wu, Cognition
"One of those outcomes is wildly probable, 90 plus percent in the next 10 years."
「这些结果中有一个是高度可能的，未来 10 年超过 90%。」
Trae Stephens · Uncapped #53 | Trae and Delian from Founders Fund
"My guess is that in 10 years time, we're actually going to have more dashers doing doing deliveries, not less."
「我的猜测是，10 年后我们实际上会有更多而非更少的 Dasher 在送单。」
Stanley Tang · Building an Autonomous Delivery Experience with DoorDash
"So where would it be in five to ten years? And I think five to ten years with the right algorithms, And we can totally be in a world where this would be possible."
「那么五到十年后会是什么样？我认为五到十年内，凭借正确的算法，我们完全可以进入一个这样的世界，做到这一点。」
Khurram Javed · Rich Sutton and Khurram Javed: Why AI Models Stop Learning, and How to Start It Again
"I basically told them, look, we do this right. There's a Nobel Prize to be won there. And I truly believe that."
「我基本上告诉他们，看看，我们要做到这一点。那里有个诺贝尔奖等着被赢得。我真的相信这一点。」
Joon Sung Park · Simulating Humans at Scale: Simile's Joon Sung Park
"It feels to me like we're going to end up with an oligopoly of winners. I really believe they will be these like $100 billion crazy, smaller winners."
「我觉得我们最终会有赢家的寡头垄断。我真的相信它们会是这些价值 1000 亿美元的疯狂小型赢家。」
Eric Vishria · Eric Vishria - A Decade of Lessons Investing in Software & Hardware
"To take it from this scale up and be worth a trillion dollars, we've got to believe that we can get to 30 billion plus of cash flow a year."
「要想从这种规模达到万亿美元的价值，我们必须相信我们可以每年实现超过 300 亿美元的现金流。」
Adam Foroughi · How AppLovin Built a $100B Ad Machine

无明确期限

「似乎所有非必需消费品支出都会被软件取代。我认为在未来，消费支出将变成食物、房租、软件。」
— a16z 消费团队 · The State of Consumer Tech in the Age of AI
"I think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multi trillion dollar hyperscale company."
「我认为 OpenAI 很可能成为下一个数万亿美元的超大规模公司。」
Jensen Huang · NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream
"Displacement in a lot of roles is going to happen very quickly, and it's going to be very painful and a large political problem. I think we're going to have a big populist movement around this and all the displacement that's going to happen."
「许多角色的职位流失会很快发生，这将非常痛苦，并会成为一个重大的政治问题。我认为我们将围绕这一点以及将要发生的所有职位流失，掀起一场大型民粹主义运动。」
Brendan Foody · The Best of 2025 (So Far)
"I do think we should expect more speciation in the intelligences. You don't need this Oracle that knows everything."
「我确实认为我们应该期望智能出现更多的物种分化。你不需要一个知道一切的 Oracle。」
Andrej Karpathy · Andrej Karpathy on Code Agents, AutoResearch, and the Loopy Era of AI
"If the barrier comes down, then actually, you have the Jevons paradox, which is, you know, actually the demand for software actually goes up."
「如果障碍降低，那么实际上你会遇到杰文斯悖论——对软件的需求实际上会上升。」
Andrej Karpathy · Andrej Karpathy on Code Agents, AutoResearch, and the Loopy Era of AI
"For sure, we focus a lot on coding, but Next, when you think about design or data science, those are starting to be the next areas that I think are good opportunities for us to see how we can start improving the experiences there as well."
「当然，我们非常注重编码，但接下来，考虑到设计或数据科学时，这些领域正开始成为我认为可以改善体验的好机会。」
Fiona Fung · Building the most AI-pilled engineering team in the world
"You'll probably at some point go back to something like subscription because it's hard to forecast these things."
「在某些时候，你可能会回到类似订阅的模式，因为很难预测这些事情。」
Gabe Pereyra · Harvey Co-Founder Gabe Pereyra on the Token Pricing Reckoning Coming for AI
"So I mean, it's held for almost 10 orders of magnitude. There's no reason it should not keep holding."
「所以我的观点是，这已经持续了近 10 个数量级。没有理由它不会继续保持下去。」
Mark Chen · Cooking with OpenAI's Research Chief: AGI, o1, Evals, and Scaling Laws
"I don't know what would consider as a breakthrough versus not, but I think there are clearly many shots on goal and I am pretty sure they'll work."
「我不知道什么算是突破与否，但我认为明显还有很多机会，而且我很确定它们会奏效。」
Mark Chen · Cooking with OpenAI's Research Chief: AGI, o1, Evals, and Scaling Laws
"we kind of think there's going to be consistently this gap of like Three to six months ahead where there's certain things that are bespoke that people are just exploring"
「我们认为将始终存在这样一个三到六个月的时间差，某些特定的事物人们正在探索」
Dan Biderman · Memory and Continual Learning: Engram's Dan Biderman and Jessy Lin
"But it'll require this sort of surge of automated design solutions that cover 80% of those cases. So 20% can be spent by real humans, but the humans will move on to AX, I believe."
「但这将需要一种涵盖 80% 案例的自动化设计解决方案的激增。这样 20% 可以由真正的人类花费，但我相信人类将转向 AX。」
John Maeda · What Happens to Design After AI?
"I think that also the number of people who will raise the ceiling will not be a high number. And it won't be that valuable in the mass market. So I think it'll never be automated."
「我认为，能够提升天花板的人数不会很多。在大众市场上，这不会那么有价值。所以我认为它永远不会被自动化。」
John Maeda · What Happens to Design After AI?
"a lot of people have used this moment to go, is this the death of apps? Because you'll just get to everything through a command line. And I'm very much a believer that Apps and experiences and being able to visualize and explore information or spend time in an app consuming content or interact with things. None of that's going to go away."
「很多人利用这个时刻来问，这是不是应用的死亡？因为你只需通过命令行访问一切。我非常相信应用和体验，能够可视化和探索信息，或花时间在应用中消费内容或与事物互动。这些都不会消失。」
Josh Elman · What's Next for Consumer AI? | Josh Elman Joins a16z
"And I think we're going to be figuring out with the models even that you can run on iPhones or on laptops, how to push more and more of the complex or the less complex inference that needs to be done onto device to lower the cost."
「我认为我们将会发现如何在 iPhone 或笔记本电脑上运行的模型中，通过将越来越多需要在设备上进行的复杂或不复杂的推理转移到设备上来降低成本。」
Josh Elman · What's Next for Consumer AI? | Josh Elman Joins a16z
"They're going to want that flexibility and the apps that will win in the next generation will give people that sense of ownership."
「他们会想要这种灵活性，而在下一代中将获胜的应用将会给人们这种拥有感。」
Josh Elman · What's Next for Consumer AI? | Josh Elman Joins a16z
"And I think it will actually help us interact with other people. It'll be like, hey, I'm going to go talk to Anish's agent or negotiate this thing."
「我认为这实际上会帮助我们与其他人互动。它会像，嘿，我要去跟 Anish 的代理人谈谈或谈判这个事情。」
Josh Elman · What's Next for Consumer AI? | Josh Elman Joins a16z
"And the thesis was what we've seen in code is going to happen in most white-collar job functions and eventually probably most blue-collar job functions as well."
「而论文所说的，是我们在代码中看到的情况将会发生在大多数白领工作职能上，并最终可能发生在大多数蓝领工作职能上。」
Ev Randle · Benchmark's AI Bets
"this could actually become not a 200K line item for the average company, but a $20 million line item for the average customer and average company."
「这可能不再是一般公司 200K 的项目，而是一个平均客户和平均公司 2,000 万美元的项目。」
Ev Randle · Benchmark's AI Bets
"Is photography going to die? Regular photography going to die in the future? I don't think so. There are a lot of people who are doing photography, not just because they enjoy the result, they enjoy the process so much, right?"
「摄影会消亡吗？普通摄影在未来会消亡吗？我不这样认为。有很多人做摄影，不仅仅是因为他们享受最终结果，他们也非常享受这个过程，对吧？」
Zach Xia · Building AI for Creators | Luma & Phota Labs
"You're talking to someone who is working with you, but they're not talking back to you in text. They're showing you examples. They're walking through, hey, do you like these ideas? Do you like these ideas? And I think that's the direction you'll see these AI creative tools go."
「你在与一个和你合作的人交往，但他们不会用文本回应你。他们会给你展示示例。他们会让你看看，你喜欢这些想法吗？你喜欢这些想法吗？我认为这就是你会看到这些 AI 创意工具发展的方向。」
Matt Tancik · Building AI for Creators | Luma & Phota Labs
"I would not bet on 3.8%. I would bet on much closer to 20%. In software engineering, the gains to me seem unequivocally there."
「我不会押 3.8%。我会押接近 20% 得多的数。在软件工程里，这种收益在我看来是毫无疑义存在的。」
Clay Bavor · 20VC: Open Models vs Frontier Models
"But in particular, you have to wonder about the large language models. They might be at risk."
「但特别是，你必须考虑大型语言模型。它们可能面临风险。」
Rich Sutton · Rich Sutton and Khurram Javed: Why AI Models Stop Learning, and How to Start It Again
"But what about a simulation that takes actually $100 million to run once? And could take many months to run. But when we run it, it solves one of the fundamental questions of our society."
「但是如果要进行一次花费 100 万美元的模拟呢？可能需要很多个月才能完成。但当我们运行它时，它解决了我们社会的基本问题之一。」（"100 万美元"为 podwise 译文误译，原文为 $100 million 即 1 亿美元）
Joon Sung Park · Simulating Humans at Scale: Simile's Joon Sung Park
"So we have sort of plateaued with current modeling paradigm, our ability to really simulate humans. So it is sort of at the starting good foundational level, but to make it really amazing, we do need the next frontier that is more geared towards actually modeling people's diversity."
「所以我们在当前的建模范式上，有些停滞不前，无法真正模拟人类。因此，它在基础层面上是一个很好的起点，但要使其真正出色，我们确实需要更面向人类多样性的下一步技术。」
Joon Sung Park · Simulating Humans at Scale: Simile's Joon Sung Park
"We do believe, we do see the trend that in the future there could be millions of specialized models, one product application per use case. It will be millions."
「我们确实相信，我们看到未来可能会有数百万个专业模型，每个用例一个产品应用。这将是数百万。」
Lin Qiao · Post-Training Is How You Keep Your Taste | Fireworks CEO Lin Qiao
"They've turned it into a medallion system that cannot be traded. … And that is why the prices are going up and the service is going down."
「他们把它变成了一种不能交易的徽章系统。……这就是为什么价格上涨而服务下降的原因。」
Travis Kalanick · Travis Kalanick, Founder of Uber & Atoms
"…but should you even need to go to one or should you just be able to say buy it on a product display page? I think so. I think just checkout pages will go away."
「……但你是否甚至需要去一个，还是可以在产品展示页面上直接购买？我认为是的。我认为结账页面将会消失。」
Will Gaybrick · Stripe's AI Strategy: Build More, Not Less
"So I think microtransactions will just be necessary for that economy to exist, the sort of agentic economy. And then on the flip side, they're now eminently possible because of stablecoins."
「所以我认为微交易对这种经济的存在是必不可少的，也就是那种代理经济。而且另一方面，由于稳定币的存在，这种经济现如今是非常可行的。」
Will Gaybrick · Stripe's AI Strategy: Build More, Not Less
"If 99% of the use case is search, then the ads and chatbots are probably going to look and feel a lot like search."
「如果 99% 的用例是搜索，那么广告和聊天机器人可能看起来和感觉就像搜索。」
Adam Foroughi · How AppLovin Built a $100B Ad Machine
"…they start getting accumulated by private equity or effectively plucked off the public markets, taken private, because the only way to recover it is a complete restructure."
「……它们开始被私募股权收购，或实际上是从公开市场上被剥离，被转为私有，因为恢复的唯一办法是进行彻底重组。」
Adam Foroughi · How AppLovin Built a $100B Ad Machine
"…this idea that like model routers are going to Probably play a really large role in routing intelligence to the exact capability of the task they're at."
「……模型路由器可能会在将智能路由到任务的确切能力中发挥非常重要的作用。」
Arjun Karanam · Continual Learning: How AI Agents Get Better With Every Use
"…this is actually something that will probably happen on a per org basis or recursive and further per customer basis."
「……这实际上可能会在每个组织的基础上发生，或者递归地，在每个客户的基础上发生。」
Arjun Karanam · Continual Learning: How AI Agents Get Better With Every Use

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